From left to right: Minister of state and national security adviser of Saudi Arabia Musaad Bin Mohammed Al Aiban; Wang Yi, Chinese senior diplomat; and Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council during a meeting in Beijing, China on March 10, 2023.
In an unprecedented move, two ideological archrivals Iran and Saudi Arabia have decided to give diplomacy a chance after decades of hostilities and proxy wars failed to subdue each other.
Both countries decided to reopen embassies within two months which were closed down in 2016 after Saudi executed an top Shia cleric. They also vowed to reactivate the cooperation and security agreements signed in 1998 and 2001. But the most surprising development in the Riyadh and Tehran reconciliation was the emergence of an unlikely player in the Middle East, China, who helped broker those talks.
The deal will certainly bring much needed calm in the region as the proxy conflicts between two nations battered Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria. Yemen has been the center of ongoing war which is estimated to have killed more than 200,000 people and displaced millions. It can also ease unrest in Syria which has become a breeding ground for proxy conflicts following the 2011 civil war.
This deal further signals towards the inevitability of a multi-polar world with China as a worthy challenger to the U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. Last year, President Xi proposed a Global Security Initiative as an alternative to U.S. backed “rules-based international order.”
The Biden administration response doesn’t seem to be concerning at all or they are downplaying it as one of the most important allies left the U.S. on the sidelines.
U.S. officials have issued brief public statements terming it as a one-off case and anything that helps calm the region is in America’s interest. The U.S. tried to broker the same deal but it doesn’t have any leverage over Iran to comply. On the contrary, China has strong economic relations with both countries which led to a major diplomatic breakthrough.
America has been the security provider of Saudi Arabia since the Second World War when President Roosevelt established an oil-for-security relationship as they met aboard the USS Quincy in the Suez Canal. But in the last few years, Riyadh has been drifting away from Washington, voicing grievances over halting arms sales worth $35 billion, terming the U.S. as an “unreliable security partner.” Last year, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Suleman didn’t pay much heed to President Biden’s demand to increase oil supply amid supply shocks.
This deal could prove to be a strategic loss for Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and potential future security and economic partner, Israel. Warming of relations could further complicate the Riyadh aspect of joining Abraham Accords, which aims to normalize relations between Israel and Arab countries. A few days before the deal was signed, The Wall Street Journal report stated that Saudi Arabia has offered its price to accept Israel if the U.S. offers unconditional security guarantees and helps to build a civilian nuclear powered plant. These demands seem unlikely to be realized as Congress harbors concerns about its human rights record.
Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu’s rhetoric to isolate Iran and build a strong Arab military coalition appeared to be stopped in its tracks as Saudi Arabia and Iran both chose the path of de-escalation.
